Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 127,920
2 South Dakota 122,030
3 Rhode Island 108,025
4 Utah 107,288
5 Tennessee 103,778
6 Arizona 103,148
7 Wisconsin 101,226
8 Iowa 100,691
9 Nebraska 98,131
10 Oklahoma 97,098
11 Arkansas 96,945
12 Kansas 95,294
13 Indiana 92,945
14 Alabama 92,915
15 Mississippi 91,615
16 Idaho 90,921
17 Nevada 89,774
18 Wyoming 89,311
19 Illinois 88,633
20 Montana 87,316
21 Louisiana 85,457
22 South Carolina 84,610
23 California 83,318
24 Georgia 82,460
25 New Mexico 82,409
26 Minnesota 81,532
27 Kentucky 81,054
28 Texas 81,013
29 Missouri 80,100
30 Florida 79,084
31 Delaware 79,007
32 New Jersey 77,376
33 Ohio 76,018
34 Massachusetts 75,045
35 Alaska 73,413
36 New York 71,763
37 North Carolina 71,461
38 Connecticut 70,127
39 Colorado 68,725
40 West Virginia 66,661
41 Pennsylvania 65,606
42 Michigan 60,797
43 Virginia 58,334
44 Maryland 58,025
45 District of Columbia 51,596
46 New Hampshire 47,685
47 Washington 41,239
48 Puerto Rico 39,635
49 Oregon 33,603
50 Maine 28,874
51 Vermont 18,683
52 Hawaii 18,080

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 774
2 Arizona 740
3 Mississippi 679
4 Texas 667
5 Alabama 657
6 Oklahoma 656
7 Rhode Island 642
8 New York 635
9 Georgia 628
10 Louisiana 624
11 Kansas 608
12 North Carolina 596
13 Arkansas 593
14 Kentucky 591
15 New Jersey 583
16 Virginia 569
17 Pennsylvania 561
18 Utah 549
19 Massachusetts 535
20 Delaware 494
21 California 489
22 Connecticut 479
23 Florida 478
24 West Virginia 462
25 Ohio 446
26 Tennessee 446
27 New Hampshire 408
28 New Mexico 397
29 Nevada 387
30 Indiana 380
31 District of Columbia 337
32 Montana 334
33 Missouri 330
34 Maryland 328
35 Idaho 327
36 Illinois 318
37 Wyoming 309
38 Wisconsin 305
39 Colorado 295
40 Iowa 283
41 Maine 274
42 Washington 269
43 Nebraska 264
44 Alaska 256
45 South Dakota 216
46 Michigan 211
47 Vermont 199
48 North Dakota 197
49 Minnesota 192
50 Oregon 187
51 Puerto Rico 93
52 Hawaii 76

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,407
2 New York 2,201
3 Massachusetts 2,095
4 Rhode Island 2,033
5 Mississippi 2,010
6 South Dakota 1,998
7 Connecticut 1,976
8 North Dakota 1,894
9 Louisiana 1,893
10 Arizona 1,792
11 Pennsylvania 1,681
12 Illinois 1,668
13 Arkansas 1,600
14 New Mexico 1,549
15 Alabama 1,543
16 Michigan 1,542
17 Indiana 1,474
18 Iowa 1,450
19 Tennessee 1,372
20 Nevada 1,371
21 South Carolina 1,348
22 Kansas 1,297
23 District of Columbia 1,285
24 Georgia 1,276
25 Texas 1,269
26 Florida 1,222
27 Maryland 1,170
28 Missouri 1,166
29 Montana 1,148
30 West Virginia 1,119
31 Delaware 1,107
32 Minnesota 1,105
33 Wisconsin 1,097
34 Nebraska 1,037
35 Wyoming 1,029
36 California 1,017
37 Colorado 988
38 Idaho 966
39 Ohio 947
40 North Carolina 878
41 Oklahoma 877
42 Kentucky 875
43 New Hampshire 761
44 Virginia 747
45 Washington 573
46 Puerto Rico 567
47 Utah 516
48 Oregon 463
49 Maine 424
50 Alaska 345
51 Hawaii 285
52 Vermont 275

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alabama 45
2 Arizona 25
3 South Carolina 23
4 South Dakota 23
5 Kansas 17
6 California 16
7 Pennsylvania 16
8 Arkansas 15
9 Georgia 15
10 Mississippi 14
11 Nevada 14
12 Tennessee 14
13 Texas 14
14 West Virginia 14
15 Montana 13
16 Louisiana 12
17 New Mexico 12
18 Oklahoma 12
19 North Carolina 11
20 Connecticut 10
21 Kentucky 10
22 Massachusetts 10
23 New Hampshire 10
24 New Jersey 10
25 Florida 9
26 New York 9
27 District of Columbia 8
28 Iowa 8
29 Rhode Island 8
30 Virginia 8
31 Illinois 7
32 Wisconsin 7
33 Idaho 6
34 Maryland 6
35 Ohio 6
36 Indiana 5
37 Washington 5
38 Colorado 4
39 Delaware 4
40 Missouri 4
41 Utah 4
42 Michigan 3
43 Minnesota 3
44 Nebraska 3
45 Oregon 3
46 Puerto Rico 3
47 Maine 2
48 Hawaii 1
49 North Dakota 1
50 Alaska 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 297,476 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 239,479 2 99
Dewey South Dakota 235,743 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 233,031 4 99
Bent Colorado 230,769 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 120,930 239 92
Richland South Carolina 84,676 1378 56
York South Carolina 77,835 1735 44
Orange California 76,586 1789 43
Pierce Washington 38,466 2894 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 3 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,452 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,046 1905 39
Richland South Carolina 1,003 1975 37
Orange California 937 2072 34
York South Carolina 779 2279 27
Pierce Washington 516 2645 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons